This study analyzes the migration of Israeli-Palestinians from the north of Israel and the Triangle to Jerusalem and highlights possible transformations in their internal migration patterns and their integration into Israeli economy and society. Its main conjecture focuses on their status as a middle-man minority between Israeli private and public institutions and the East-Jerusalem population. This unique employment opportunity in the Jerusalem labor market is the city’s growing major attraction as a migration destination for the Israeli-Palestinian population.
In this publication Nasrallah sets out to explore whether or not a democratic Palestinian State is possible. To answer the question he analyses the events and processes within the PA since Arafat's death, and pays special attention to the rise to power of Hamas and its impact on the political and social system. Following this analysis he presents three scenarios: Total Collapse, National Consensus and Building a Viable State, and The Impasse. Relying on the three scenarios, Rami Nasrallah explores the barriers and opportunities strewn along the way to a viable Palestinian State.
This publication presents the complex reality of Jerusalem as a divided city analyzed by six contributors. Shlomo Hasson examines the territorial, social, economic, and political developments in Jerusalem and explores how they may affect possible solutions to the problem of Jerusalem. Shlomo Hasson and Rami Nasrallah explore the different possible futures that may be played out in the city due to the impact of local, national, and international developments. Rassem Khamaisi proposes the alleviation of the Palestinian plight through the realization of the right to the city. Amiram Gonen explores new ways of strengthening Jerusalem by creating new contacts between Israelis and Palestinians. Noam Shoval examines the morphology of the city and the impact of the security barrier on everyday life. Ifat Maoz presents survey data on public opinion regarding different solutions to the problem of Jerusalem.
This study attempts to assess the various impacts of the separation barrier on the sense of affiliation and identity, the economy and the spatial organization of the Arab population in Israel. The study points to the unequivocal message to the Arabs in Israel, that they will continue to be citizens of the state in any future agreement with the Palestinians.The fence however, creates a barrier between them and their brethren, their families and cultural affiliations across the other side. The fence makes economic ties with Palestinian urban centers more difficult, but on the other hand it accelerates local demand in Arab localities on the west side, thus contributing to a certain rate of growth in business and services which hitherto suffered a slump. Concurrently, localities in close proximity to the fence return to their pre 1967 peripheral status which stunts their development potential.
This study examines the impact of two concurrent processes on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: the changing leadership and governmental reshuffle on the one hand and the Israeli disengagement on the other hand. The relationship between the Palestinian Authority and its residents are also examined as are the means used to present the Oslo Accords to them, and other functioning characteristics underlying the political stalemate. The Palestinian reactions to disengagement are considered, the power struggle developing among the various foci of power and the impacts on the inter-organizational relationship. The researcher attempts to point out possible directions of development in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship after the stabilization of the Palestinian government and the implementation of the disengagement program.
This publication is a product of a two-year cooperation effort between the International Peace and Cooperation Center and the Floersheimer Institute for Policy Studies carried out with the support of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. The two teams worked on a series of scenarios regarding possible futures for Jerusalem, a vision of a desired future and a preliminary strategic framework towards its realization.
Proposals to cede Arab localities from Israeli to Palestinian sovereignty, presented as "populated land exchanges", involve forcibly revoking the citizenship of tens of thousands of Arabs. Since the October 2000 events these proposals penetrated the heart of public discourse. The Arab leadership and public vehemently oppose these proposals. This study examines the Jewish discourse supporting the idea alongside Arab opposition to it in Israel and the territories as well as its implications on the character of the State of Israel. It examines Israeli and international legal perspectives and demographic and territorial implications. The study emphasizes the danger and folly of this idea and recommends discussing the idea as part of the Arab-Jewish discourse and as part of the status of the Arab minority in a democratic Jewish state.
The research addresses the shifts in the post Arafat era and examines their impacts on the disengagement plan. The main focus of the research is to examine the viability of the plan as originally intended by prime minister Sharon, as a divorce arrangement, or whether it can be used to lay the foundations for long range political agreements or even a final status solution,which recognizes the limitations of both sides.
This research is based on a model which aims to identify and map the psychological variants affecting, alongside demographic and other variants, political and strategic decisions in conflicts.
It identifies the factors underlying the support for specific compromise resolutions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, thus complementing other studies which identify psychological, demographic and other factors underlying the militant policy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Arab-Jewish willingness to engage. Identifying public preferences is likely to improve planning and intervention that will address, emotional and perception barriers to political processes (such as disengagement) in the conflict.
This study highlights the characteristics of decision-making in the disengagement process on issues concerning the evacuation of settlements, uprooting settlers and its outcome, recompensing evacuees and resettling them. In order to examine the decision-making process more comprehensively, the author compares between the process of evacuating the Sinai settlers in 1982 with those of Gaza in 2005. The study analyses similarities and differences between these two processes and highlights lessons that were drawn as well as those that were overlooked.
The study was written until July 2005 and its contribution is mainly in drawing conclusions that are likely to guide decision-makers in Israel in any future evacuation of settlements in Judea and Samaria.
What will happen the day after disengagement? Will disengagement bring peace and stability to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and promote negotiations towards a permanent status solution, or will the opposite occur reinforcing the radical Islamist factions who maintain that force alone will convince Israel?
This essay examines these questions from the viewpoint of four central and widely held geopolitical approaches in Israel: The Necessity of Separation; Two State Solution (“Two States for Two Peoples”); The Greater Land of Israel and a Bi-National State. It presents the different approaches, details the scenarios relevant to them, and analyzes the political options common to them and offers several recommendations.
This paper examines the possible impact of local and regional Islamic movements, committed to prevent or spoil by terror any settlement between Israel and the PLO, on the intended Israeli disengagement from Gaza Strip in 2005 and, following the death of Arafat, on possible renewal of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations along the Road Map.
The movements included in this paper are primarily the Palestinian Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and local Fatah-based militia groups that emerged after October 2000 and adopted similar tactics of terrorist attacks against Israel. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad maintain direct political and military links with Syria and Iran and, more closely, with the Shi'i Lebanese Hizballah movement, which operates both as an independent Lebanese actor and as a conduit for Iranian and Syrian influence in Palestinian affairs.
This study describes the difficulties confronting the settlers of the Gaza strip in light of the current disengagement. It highlights both their distinguishing and similar characteristics and the impacts of their various attitudes on key issues: a religious world-view, an ideology of holding the land, economic concerns, socio-communal ties and individual psychological angst.
This research focuses on the internal discourse of the Gush Katif settlers, exposes their socio-political perceptions, and attempts to understand the motives and the socio-psychological reasoning determining the settlers’ conduct. An understanding of the settlers’ discourse entails understanding their perception of “a home” - a geographic location strongly tied with their individual and community identity. The research highlights the frequent tension between the humane, individual and communal discourse and the national-religious discourse.
This essay details the urban consequences of the Al Aqsa Intifadah and the separation barrier project on Jerusalem. In West Jerusalem, the onset of terror, and specifically a wave of suicide bombings, hastened the city’s decentralization. Rapid decline of the economy and the disappearance of tourism further battered the city’s vitality. Israel’s increased barriering of the city, culminating in the separation barrier project, was a major low for the city’s Arab inhabitants, and the urban fabric of East Jerusalem. Neighborhoods inside and outside the barrier were divided, with massive effects on daily life, work opportunities, property values, and relocation patterns. The paper argues that without a strategic package of urban recovery measures, Jerusalem is in danger of becoming locked in a spiral of decline.